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Probability Trick

Kernel of Truth

Creationists will make a dishonest attempt to calculate the probability of something forming. A variety of different blunders are employed. They multiply probabilities to together as if a single known outcome was produced in a single instant instead of gradually over time.

Jason Rodenhouse​

Presentation by Jason Rodenhouse - Use and Abuse of Probability in Evolutionary Biology

  • combinatorics, not statistics, is the right foundation for doing these calculations.
    • Ronald Fisher wrote a book in 1930 "The Genetical Theory of Natural selection"
    • J.B.S. Haldane and Sewall Wright wrote "Modern Synthesis"

Here is the way that the creationist proceeds with the bogus Argument from Improbability

  • Identify a complex biological structure, such as a gene or protein
  • Model its evolution as a process of randomly selecting on item from a very large space of equiprobably possibilities
  • Use elementary combinatorics to determine the size of the space "S"
  • Conclude that the probability of evolving by change in 1/S and say that is too small to be credible.

Actually, the probability space is highly nonuniform. Genotypes have a metric structure, and some are quite a bit more likely than others.

Truffle Argument​

Raises the truffle argument. Truffles are very hard to find, and if you just started digging anywhere, you would never find a truffle in thousands of years. Instead, truffle hunters use an edge: a sense of smell.

Stepping Stone Example​

Stepping stones example: there is only one set of stepping stones. You don't do a random search of the river, instead you search locally. Isn't it remarkable that you found the only possible set of stones. The walking path took us to the starting point of the stones. Only small portions of the river need to be searched.

References​